COVID-19

I have a simple-minded suggestion. Test everyone. Then quarantine those who have COVID-19, and let everyone else go about their business. In Wuhan China, where the outbreak has mostly run it's course (according to the Chinese, anyway), the percentage of people infected was 0.11%. Right now the number of people known to be infected in the US is on the order of .001%. Even if you assume that ten times this many people are now infected but not tested yet, you still only have to quarantine on the order of 100,000 people. A lot but easily doable.


I know we don't have enough test kits. But this is a solvable problem. We know how to make them. I would bet that if this were made a major project with money available, we could make enough test kits to test everyone in the US within a week. Of course doing all the testing, and processing all the results would be a major logistical problem. But logistical problems are something the US is good at when we put our minds to it. We won WWII. We built the atomic bomb. We put men on the moon. This is small potatoes in comparison.

I know this is not a perfect solution. There would be people who refuse to be tested. We probably can't force them. Logically they should be quarantined as though they were positive. But there are moral and political issues with this. Also, there are the people we simply can't contact. These people are effectively self quarantined. Finally, there are people who have been exposed, but don't (yet) test positive. I suspect testing would have to be repeated after a week or so. This would depend on how many cases emerge among those who test negative and aren't quarantined.

Another problem that makes the logistics worse is that you have to do all the testing the same day. Otherwise people are infected but not tested yet, can infect people who have already tested negative. The good news is that you don't have to disinfect the whole country. The virus can persist in the environment for only about three hours, and then it's safe to go out.

If all this sounds too daunting, just consider the alternative. What we're doing now is about to destroy the economy. Many businesses will never recover. Those who do will take a long time to return to normal. If the current state of affairs continues too long there is the risk of a total breakdown of society.